By Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani

First published in the Malaysian Insider

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 27 — DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng believes that it would be impossible for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to dislodge Umno from Bagan Pinang if Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad is nominated as the candidate.

Lim explained that chances for Isa, who was Negri Sembilan mentri besar for 23 years, to win is 70 per cent.

“I’ll be honest, the opportunity for BN to win is bright. The opportunity for them to win is 60, 40 per cent but if they choose Isa then their chances will increase to 70, 30 percent,” he said after the DAP national-level Aidil Fitri open house in Kg Cheras Baru here.

However the Penang Chief Minister stressed that even if Umno and Barisan Nasional are able to retain the Bagan Pinang seat, they might risk losing in the next general election.

“You can win the battle but lose the war. You can win Bagan Pinang but can lose the whole Malaysia. They also cannot lose in Bagan Pinang because they will also lose the whole Malaysia. It depends on Umno strategising. There is a lot of calculations and considerations that BN has to do,” he noted.

Lim added that a win for Isa will have an effect on BN’s perceptions among Malaysians.

“If they choose Isa, it is certain that they will win. Almost guaranteed but this will have a negative consequence for Umno and Barisan Nasional in Malaysia.

“I am referring to what Mahathir said. If they choose Isa it would look bad for Umno and Barisan Nasional. For Najib, if he places Isa then they are in trouble, if he does not place Isa then they are also in trouble,” he added.

During the party election 16 years ago, Isa contested the Youth chief post against the then Malacca Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik, who was backed by the then newly-minted party deputy president Anwar.

Isa lost the contest by 44 votes.In 2004, he obtained the highest vote for the vice-president contest only to be suspended months later for six years over corruption charges. The sentence was then cut to three years.

If Isa is fielded in Bagan Pinang it will be his second attempt at making a comeback after failing to defend the vice-president post during the party elections last March.

The Bagan Pinang by-election came following the death of BN’s Azman Mohammad Noor on Sept 4.

In March last year, Azman defeated Ramli Ismail of PAS, by some 2,000 votes. BN is currently ruling the state with a simple majority after winning only 21 out of the 36 state constituencies.